EXPERIMENT LOG

Everything we tried.

4 write-ups, three statuses. Falsified is not a failure of the lab - it’s the product.

SHIPPED

GPU passthrough into LXC, without the pain

Four identical RTX 5060 Ti cards, one Proxmox container, and a PCIe lane map that quietly decides which card is allowed to talk to which. The passthrough was the easy part.

2026-08-11 · 12 MINHOMELAB
SHIPPED

The look-ahead bug that made our backtest look worse

Our Chandelier exit peeked one bar ahead, cutting winners short instead of inflating the result. A fixed backtest is not a found edge: ETH 4h went from -16.2% to +185.0%.

2026-07-03 · 8 MINTRADING
FALSIFIED

Our LLM Polymarket bot was just reading the market price back to us

Aggregate Brier score 0.12. And it lost to the market in every single edge bucket. A postmortem of an LLM forecaster that turned out to be an expensive mirror.

2026-06-07 · 8 MINTRADING
SHIPPED

Everything I got wrong planning a $5.5k AI homelab

Three planning mistakes, one invisible GPU, and seven months of running a 64GB-VRAM box that ended up doing a completely different job than the one I built it for.

2025-12-01 · 9 MINHOMELAB
THE GRAVEYARD · KILLED WITH PRIDE

Buried, not hidden.

Every falsified experiment stays on the record, with the one lesson that made it worth the funeral.

2026-06-07
Our LLM Polymarket bot was just reading the market price back to us
LESSONCalibration is not edge. Brier score says your probabilities are honest; only win rate against your counterparty says they're worth anything.